The U.S. Sentencing Commission has released its third-quarter, FY 2025 preliminary data (through June 30, 2025). The snapshot of the nation’s sentencing trends shows that the federal criminal docket continues to be driven by immigration and drug cases, consistent with the new administration’s focus on illegal immigration. In terms of actual sentences, district courts continue varying from the Sentencing Guidelines in nearly a third of all cases.
Types of Offenses and Sentences Imposed in Relation to Offenders’ Guidelines Ranges
The Commission has tracked 47,894 sentences so far this fiscal year. Immigration offenses account for 35.7% of the caseload, followed by drugs at 25.6%, firearms at 12.3%, and fraud/theft/embezzlement at 8.0%. Nationally, 68.0% of sentences have been imposed under the Guidelines and its provisions for departures, including 49.7% within the defendant’s Guidelines range. Government-sponsored motions for sentence reductions remain meaningful drivers of sentencing outcomes: §5K1.1 substantial assistance in 8.6% of cases and fast-track (§5K3.1) in 6.5%. Variances make up the remaining 32.0% of sentences this year.
Sentence Lengths (means and medians).
Across all offenses, the mean sentence is 49 months (median 21). Medians by major categories: immigration 6 months, drug trafficking 70, firearms 41, robbery 90, child pornography 97, sexual abuse 210, and murder 297 (life counted as 470 months).
Several of these categories continue to see variance from the Guidelines in a majority of cases: tax offenses (58.6%) and child pornography (57.6%). Drug trafficking cases have resulted in a 43.1% variance rate thus far; firearms 40.7%; fraud/theft/embezzlement 40.5%. Immigration is distinct thus far, with a high rate of sentences within the Guidelines range (67.5%), heavy fast-track usage (14.6%), and comparatively low variance (14.7%).
Regional splits have emerged regarding these sentencing trends. The Fifth Circuit—home to large border districts—shows the most guideline-conforming sentences (70.9% within-range; 21.2% variance). In the Ninth Circuit, fast-track and variances each account for about 29% of outcomes. The Southern District of California is an outlier with fast-track in 50.2% of cases and only 10.5% variances.
Sentences in Drug Cases
Among drug cases, methamphetamine remains dominant (47.1%), with fentanyl at 24.4% and powder cocaine at 18.0% (crack 3.0%, marijuana 2.4%, heroin 2.2%). As noted above, judges vary from the Guidelines in almost half of these cases.
Click here to read the Commission’s data.