United States v. Guevara-Lopez (10th Cir. August 2025)

The Federal Docket

September 11, 2025

In September 2021, a New Mexico officer stopped a 19-year-old driver, Raymundo Guevara-Lopez, and found $60,980 hidden behind screwed-in panels. Guevara-Lopez admitted to transporting bulk cash to Mexico and estimated he moved more than $2.7 million in proceeds, earning roughly $125,000 in payments across 25 to 30 trips. He pleaded guilty to a single count of attempted bulk-cash smuggling under 31 U.S.C. § 5332.

The PSR calculated a total offense level of 17 and criminal history category I, yielding an advisory range of 24 to 30 months. It also noted Sentencing Commission JSIN statistics showing national median sentences between 12 and 16 months (depending on the calculation) with none receiving upward variances during the five-year survey period.

At sentencing, the district court imposed the five-year maximum, citing the seriousness of the conduct, deterrence, and Guevara-Lopez’s “alarming” lack of consideration for the harm in Mexico. The district court also incorrectly stated that the federal offense was committed while the defendant was on state bond in Texas.  

On appeal, the panel found the explanation inadequate and remanded for resentencing. It stressed that a “major variance” requires a “cogent and reasonable explanation,” especially where national sentencing data shows the sentence as a statistical outlier: No other defendant with the same primary guideline, offense level, and criminal history category received an upward variance from 2019 to 2023. The panel also found that the mistaken assumption about the Texas bond status tainted the district court’s § 3553(a) analysis.

Judge Hartz dissented, arguing that the seriousness of the cartel conduct justified the sentence and that the majority overemphasized national statistics.

Appeal from the District of New Mexico

Opinion by Phillips, joined by Federico. Dissenting opinion by Hartz.

Click here to read the full opinion.

Tom Church - Tom is a trial and appellate lawyer focusing on criminal defense and civil trials. Tom is the author of "The Federal Docket" and is a contributor to Mercer Law Review's Annual Survey in the areas of federal sentencing guidelines and criminal law. Tom graduated with honors from the University of Georgia Law School where he served as a research assistant to the faculty in the areas of constitutional law and civil rights litigation. Read Tom's reviews on AVVO. Follow Tom on Linkedin.

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