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U.S. Sentencing Commission Releases 3rd Quarter Data

The Sentencing Commission has released FY25 Q3 data showing immigration cases driving the docket (35.7%), with drugs (25.6%) and firearms (12.3%) next, while overall variances from the Guidelines hold at 32% and government-sponsored reductions (5K1.1; fast-track pleas) make up a little over 15%. Median sentences span 6 months for immigration, 70 for drug trafficking, and 41 for firearms, with high-severity categories (CP, sexual abuse, murder) posting triple-digit medians. Regional differences have emerged, with border districts leaning on fast-track and imposing more within-Guideline-range sentences.

Data Shows Fewer Firearm, Drug Prosecution Referrals as DOJ Prioritizes Immigration Enforcement

Recent data from the federal government reflects a notable drop in referrals for federal prosecutions from the DEA and ATF as DOJ reassigns thousands of agents to assist in immigration enforcement operations. Additional reporting shows that the trend is across federal agencies, which are devoting increasing man power and resources to immigration matters at the expense of building and prosecuting other types of criminal cases.

2025 Amendments to the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines

The 2025 Federal Sentencing Guidelines, set to take effect on November 1, 2025, include notable changes such as eliminating “departures” from the Guidelines, increasing judicial discretion in imposing terms of supervised release (and often in favor of leniency), and resolving circuit splits regarding enhancements for offenses involving “physical restraint,” “intervening arrests,” minor role reductions, firearms, and criminal history calculations.

Recent Supreme Court Opinions

Hewitt v. United States (U.S. Supreme Court, June 2025)

In a 5-4 opinion, the Supreme Court held that the First Step Act’s reduced penalties for § 924(c) offenses apply at a defendant’s resentencing when the defendant’s prior sentence has been vacated. The Court reasoned that a vacated sentence is a sentence that “has not been imposed” within the meaning of § 403(b).

Esteras v. United States (U.S. Supreme Court, June 2025)

In a 7-2 opinion, the Supreme Court reversed a revocation sentence, holding that courts may not consider retribution (the need for the sentence imposed “to reflect the seriousness of the offense, promote respect for the law, and provide just punishment for the offense”) when deciding whether to revoke a defendant’s supervised release under 18 U.S.C. § 3583(e).

Kousisis v. United States (U.S. Supreme Court, May 2025)

In a 7-2 opinion, the Supreme Court held that a defendant who induces a victim to enter a transaction under materially false pretenses may be convicted of wire fraud even if he did not seek to cause economic loss.

Recent Circuit Court Opinions

United States v. Keast (9th Cir. September 2025)

The Ninth Circuit vacated a felon-in-possession sentence after holding that Oregon’s aggravated unlawful use of a weapon statute does not qualify as a “crime of violence” under the Guidelines.

United States v. Taylor (11th Cir. September 2025)

The Eleventh Circuit held Ephren Taylor’s pro-se habeas motions were unauthorized “second or successive” under the Supreme Court’s recent decision in Rivers v. Guerrero, rejecting his bid to reopen § 2255 claims.

United States v. Gaines (11th Cir. September 2025)

This case raises the question: When does the “felon-in-possession” statute not apply to felons? The Eleventh Circuit held that 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(1) applies only to prior felonies punishable by over one year of actual imprisonment, not probation or other consequences, and it vacated the defendant’s conviction for an Alabama Class D felony where the defendant was not subject to any actual prison time based on his specific circumstances. While the statute of conviction authorized over a year of prison for some defendants in certain cases, the panel held that courts considering a prior conviction under 922(g)(1) must apply a “defendant-specific” interpretation and not an “offense-specific” one.

The Federal Docket

The Federal Docket is a monthly newsletter providing lawyers and the community a summary of recent important decisions in the area of federal criminal law from the United States Supreme Court and the Circuit Courts of Appeal. The opinions are compiled, summarized and analyzed by Tom Church, an attorney in our firm’s federal criminal defense practice.

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